Dear Colleagues
I am pleased to attach the Economy / Market Snapshot covering all the major events in December, 2018.
Indian market was marginally down in December, 2018. Bank Nifty and FMCG registered 1% gains while Pharma lost about 4% and IT lost about 1%. 2018 saw the market gaining about 4%. IT gained 25% in 2018 while Auto lost about 22% in the year. FII’s invested about Rs.7,900 crores in December while Domestic Institutional Investors invested 72,100 crores in both Equity and Debt markets. Overall in 2018, FII’s sold Rs.24,000 crores in Equity market and Rs 51,700 crores in debt market. Compared to this, the Domestic Institutional Investors have invested Rs.1,13,300 crores in the equity market and Rs.3,29,100 crores in the debt market.
On the Global markets front, US markets lost about 9% last month with the shut down and standoff between Republicans and Democrats. London lost about 4%. Tokyo went down by 10% and Shanghai by 4%. Other than the Indian markets, major world markets lost in 2018 with Shanghai losing almost 25%. Indian Rupee settled at Rs.69.77 to 1 US $ from Rs.63.68 an year ago. Gold gained about 4% and Silver gained about 10% last month. Crude continued is downslide in December with a drop of 8% and currently trading at $ 54 a barrel.
With the resignation of the RBI governor and the loss of BJP in the Northern States, markets actually gained in December but for the US shutdown issues and Trump’s comments on the US Fed Chairman. 2019 will be an interesting year to watch with the Indian elections. It will also be interesting to see how the current trade war between US and China would get settled. Let us hope to have a great 2019 with lots of positivity and cheer.
Best wishes to you and your family for a happy, prosperous, healthy and wealth New Year 2019.
Happy reading!…….
Regards
V Murali
General News
- Assembly elections: Congress edges out BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
- KCR takes oath as Telangana CM for the 2nd time, Mohammad Mahmood Ali sworn in as deputy CM.
- Ashok Gehlot takes oath as Chief Minister of Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot as deputy CM.
- Kamal Nath sworn in as Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, announces farm loan waiver of up to ₹2 lakh.
- Mizo National Front chief Zoramthanga as CM of Mizoram.
- Bhupesh Baghel appointed new Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, waives farm loans.
- Opposition parties holds a meeting to discuss a grand alliance for next year’s national polls.
- Arvind Kejriwal attends his first meeting with opposition leaders.
- Telangana CM KCR meets Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik to plan for an alternative govt at Centre.
- Telangana: KCR’s son KT Rama Rao appointed working President of TRS.
- Winter Session of Parliament: Triple Talaq Bill passed in Lok Sabha, stalled in Rajya Sabha.
- PM Modi hold talks with Maldives President Solih; extends $1.4 billion financial assistance to Maldives.
- India extends ₹4,500 crores financial assistance to Bhutan as PM Modi holds talks with Bhutanese PM.
- India, US agree to accelerate defence & national security ties as Nirmala Sitharaman meets Jim Mattis.
- Sushma Swaraj hold delegation level talks with UAE, Iceland, S Korean and French counterparts.
- India China enhance cooperation in tourism, media, film, yoga, sports, academic & youth exchanges.
- South African President Ramaphosa to be Chief Guest at 2019 Republic Day parade.
- India starts visa on arrival for South Korean nationals.
- Bogibeel: PM Modi inaugurates India’s longest railroad bridge in Assam.
- Lok Sabha polls: BJP, JD(U) to contest 17 seats each, Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party to fight at 6 seats.
- J&K: President’s rule imposed in state after six months of Governor’s rule.
- Karnataka: CM HD Kumaraswamy expands cabinet, inducts 8 Congress ministers.
- Sabarimala issue: BJP observes sixth hartal in Kerala since October.
- Cyclone Phethai: Over 10 lakh hectares of crop, 12,000 mobile towers damaged in AP.
- Nepal government bans use of Indian currency notes above ₹100.
- Sunil Arora takes over as Chief Election Commissioner, says polls must be ‘free, fair, and ethical’.
- SC dismisses all pleas seeking court probe into Rafale deal, says no need for detailed scrutiny.
- AgustaWestland VVIP helicopter case: Christian Michel extradited to India; sent to judicial custody.
- National Herald row: SC allows IT dept to reopen tax case linked to Rahul and Sonia Gandhi.
- 1984 anti-Sikh violence: Sajjan Kumar gets life sentence for abetting & instigating Sikh killings.
- CBI files chargesheet against ex-Haryana CM Hooda, Congress leader Motilal Vora in land case.
- Interpol issues red corner notice against Mehul Choksi.
- Defence Acquisition Committee approves procurement worth ₹3,000 crores, including BrahMos and ARVs for naval ships.
- ISRO launches heaviest communication satellite GSAT-11, military communication satellite GSAT-7A.
- India successfully test-fires nuclear-capable long-range ballistic missiles Agni-5, Agni- IV.
- Surat leads the race as India claims top 10 of “World’s Fastest-Growing Cities”.
- 9,000 calls, 500 e-mails intercepted every month under Congress rule in 2013: RTI.
- US stands apart as G20 summit stumbles on trade, climate and migration, India to host Summit in 2022.
- Trump signs trade pact with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA.
- US, NATO gives Russia 60 days to comply with nuclear treaty.
- US-led anti-ISIS coalition announces Syria strikes after Trump orders withdrawal.
- US government shuts down over border wall funding.
- Donald Trump declares end to US “policeman” role on surprise visit to American troops in Iraq.
- US Defence Secretary James Mattis resigns, Patrick Shanahan appointed as acting Defence Secretary.
- Trump nominates Heather Nauert as Ambassador to UN; names William Barr as new Attorney General.
- SpaceX blasts off powerful GPS satellite for US military.
- George H.W. Bush, the 41st US President and father of the 43rd dead at 94.
- Theresa May survives crucial no-confidence vote amid Brexit uncertainty.
- France abandons fuel price hikes in response to violent protests.
- Angela Merkel loyalist Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer wins German party leadership battle.
- Sri Lanka: Disputed PM Mahinda Rajapaksa resigns; Ranil Wickremesinghe takes oath as new PM.
- Bangladesh election: Sheikh Hasina re-elected as PM, opposition rejects polls, demands fresh vote.
- Former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif gets 7 year imprisonment in corruption case.
- Pakistan, China, Afghanistan sign MoU on anti-terrorism cooperation in Kabul.
- Indonesia tsunami and earthquake death toll over 800, thousands homeless.
- India vs Australia: India retain Border-Gavaskar trophy as it takes unassailable 2-1 lead in the series.
- PV Sindhu defeats Nozomi Okuhara to clinch maiden BWF World Tour Finals title.
- Hockey World Cup: Belgium beat Netherlands to win title; India knocked out in quarterfinal.
- BCCI appoints WV Raman as Head Coach of India Women’s cricket team.
- Smriti Mandhana named ICC Woman Cricketer of 2018, also ODI Player of the year.
- IPL 2019: Unadkat, V Chakravarthy, Curran, Ingram, S Dube top buys.
- Luka Modric wins the Ballon d’Or: Real Madrid star ends decade of Messi and Ronaldo dominance.
Business News
- 31st GST Council meet: 28% slab rate applicable only on 34 items. Movie tickets up to ₹100 brought down to 12% and above ₹100 has been brought down to 18% from 28%.
- GST evasion worth ₹12,000 crore detected between April-November.
- RBI maintains status quo, keeps repo rate at 6.50%; cuts SLR by 25 bps; maintains calibrated tightening stance and projects HIFY20 GDP growth at 7.5%.
- RBI governor Urjit Patel resigns; Former Revenue Secretary Shaktikanta Das assumes charge.
- SEBI allows segregation of distressed assets by mutual funds.
- MSE gets SEBI approval for weekly options on currency products.
- India becomes world’s 7th largest stock market by market capitalisation of $2.08 trillion.
- Manufacturing PMI jumps to 11-month high of 54, Services PMI jumps to 4-month high of 53.7 in Nov.
- Retail inflation hits 17-month low at 2.33%, Wholesale Inflation down to 4.64% from 5.28% in Nov.
- April-November fiscal deficit touches nearly 115% of FY target.
- Cabinet approves listing of seven PSUs on the stock exchange through IPO/FPO.
- Seven state-owned banks to get ₹28,615 crores recapitalisation amount.
- India Post launches Internet banking facility for its savings account customers.
- Banking operations were impacted due to nationwide strike called against Vijaya-Dena-BoB merger.
- HC refuses to stay Dec 31 deadline for Kotak Mahindra Bank promoter stake dilution by 10%.
- NCLT approves scheme of arrangement between IDFC Bank & Capital First.
- DHFL to divest its entire stake in DHFL Pramerica Asset Managers and 50% in DHFL Pramerica Trustees.
- Uday Kotak-led IL&FS board to axe 65% workforce across the group to reduce wage bill.
- HCL technologies acquires select software assets from IBM for $1.8 billion.
- Infosys announces joint venture with Hitachi, Panasonic, Pasona in Japan.
- Govt mandates preference to India-made vehicles in public procurement.
- Manufacturing, sales and usage of non-ISI helmets to be banned from January 15, 2019.
- Ashok Leyland, Israel’s Elbit Systems sign MoU for high mobility vehicles.
- Ericsson and Volvo cars sign 5-year connected vehicle cloud worldwide deal.
- Elon Musk unveils underground transportation tunnel prototype, offers rides to VIPs.
- Escorts forms JV with Japan’s Kubota for high end tractors for domestic and export geographies.
- IndiGo becomes first Indian carrier to have 200 aircraft in its fleet.
- Radiant Life Care backed by PE firm KKR merges with Max Healthcare.
- J&J faulty hip implant case: Patients reject govt’s compensation formula.
- Horlicks sold, HUL to merge with GSK Consumer for $4 billion in India’s biggest consumer goods deal.
- Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline announce JV to create a premier global consumer healthcare company.
- TRAI sets maximum retail price of pay TV channels offered by broadcasters, gives time till 31 January for consumers to choose.
- Apple approves DND app made by TRAI for iOS store and iPhone users, details Indian govt requests for customer data.
- Apple to begin assembling top-end X-iPhones via Foxconn in Tamil Nadu in 2019.
- Huawei ships a record 200 million smartphones in 2018, despite US crackdown.
- Japan’s top three Telcom companies to exclude Huawei, ZTE network equipment.
- Hitachi to buy majority stake in ABB’s power grid arm for $6.4 billion.
- Iran skirts US sanctions and finalises oil-for-goods deal with South Korea.
- OPEC and allies agree to cut oil output to prop up prices.
- Google CEO Sundar Pichai emerges ‘unscathed’ from US Congress hearing.
- Google Play Services ends supports for Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich.
- JioMusic, Saavn merge to create South Asia’s largest music platform.
- OYO secures $103.4 million from Indonesian ride-hailing giant Grab as a part of its $1 billion round.
- India’s exports grew 0.80%, imports rose by 4.31%, trade deficit widens to $16.6 billion in November.
- NGT orders reopening of Sterlite plant in Thoothukudi, Madras HC restrains NGT order.
- E-commerce rules tightened; govt bans online firms from entering into exclusive agreements with sellers.
- Online sale of medicines banned by e-pharmacies till the Centre notifies the final rules.
- Amazon invests fresh funds of ₹22 billion in India marketplace.
- US Fed hikes interest rates for 4th time this year, pushes key lending rate to a range of 2.25% – 2.50%.
- Global debt hits all-time high of $184 trillion: IMF.
- Gold climbs to six-month peak on global growth concerns, govt shutdown in US.
- China, US declare 90-day halt to new tariffs; China allows first-ever US rice imports ahead of trade talks.
- Goal in trade talks with US is to remove all tariffs: China commerce ministry.
- White House unveils goals for Japan trade talks.
- India signs ₹3,500 crores currency swap pact with UAE; China agrees $9 billion currency swap with Argentina.
- Vijay Mallya makes fresh offer to repay loans to banks, says ready to repay 100% principal amount to banks.
- Huawei finance chief Meng Wanzhou arrested in Canada, granted bail.
- Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn formally charged for financial misconduct, Nissan also indicted.
- ADB retains Indian growth forecast at 7.3% for FY19 and 7.6% in the following financial year.
- Farm loan waiver should not form part of poll promises, says Raghuram Rajan; writes to Election Commission.
- Domestic passenger vehicle sales down 3.43%, commercial vehicles grew 5.71% in November: SIAM.
- Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala top ranking states in Sustainable Development Goals index: Niti Aayog.
- A N Jha named as new Finance Secretary, Krishnamurthy Subramanian as new Chief Economic Adviser.
- Arundhati Bhattacharya appointed SWIFT India Chairman.
- Myntra CEO Ananth Narayanan steps down.
| WORLD INDICES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indices | 31-Dec | 30-Nov | % 1M | 01-Jan | % since Jan |
| BSE | 36068 | 36194 | -0.35% | 33813 | 6.67% |
| NSE | 10863 | 10877 | -0.13% | 10436 | 4.09% |
| DOW | 23327 | 25538 | -8.66% | 24719 | -5.63% |
| NASDAQ | 6635 | 7331 | -9.48% | 6903 | -3.88% |
| FTSE | 6728 | 6980 | 3.61% | 7688 | -12.48% |
| Nikkei | 20015 | 22351 | -10.45% | 22765 | -12.08% |
| Hang Seng | 25846 | 26507 | -2.49% 6.11% | 29919 | -13.61% |
| Straits Times | 3069 | 3118 | -1.57% | 3403 | -9.82% |
| Shanghai | 2494 | 2588 | -3.64% | 3307 | -24.59% |
| USD | 69.77 | 69.59 | 0.26% | 63.68 | 9.57% |
| Euro | 80.01 | 78.77 | 1.58% | 76.48 | 4.62% |
| GBP | 89.06 | 88.81 | 0.28% | 86.06 | 3.49% |
| Yen/100INR | 0.64 | 0.61 | 3.77% | 0.56 | 12.66% |
| Gold | 31410 | 30260 | 3.80% | 29123 | 7.85% |
| Silver | 38755 | 35155 | 10.24% | 39176 | -1.07% |
| Crude Brent $ | 53.80 | 58.71 | -8.36% | 67.13 | -19.86% |
| Crude Nymex $ | 45.41 | 50.93 | -10.84% | 60.62 | -25.09% |
| NIFTY SECTORAL INDICES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sectors | BANK NIFTY | CNX IT | CNX AUTO | CNX FMCG | CNX PHARMA |
| 31-Dec | 27160 | 14440 | 9235 | 30517 | 8869 |
| 30-Nov | 26863 | 14638 | 9270 | 30126 | 9276 |
| % 1M | 1.11% | -1.35% | -0.38% | 1.30% | -4.39% |
| 01-Jan | 25318 | 11566 | 11891 | 26686 | 9618 |
| % since Jan | 7.28% | 24.85% | -22.33% | 14.35% | -7.79% |
| INDIAN TRADE(USD MILLION) | |
|---|---|
| Exports | 26500 |
| Imports | 43170 |
| FDI | 1898 |
| Government Bond 10Y | 7.37% |
| GDP YoY | 7.10% |
| Inflation Rate | 2.33% |
| Forex Reserves $ M | 393290 |
| IIP % | 3.00% |
| INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ACTIVITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Particulars | FII (Rs.crore) | MF (Rs.crore) |
| Equity | 3301 | 2904 |
| Debt | 4601 | 69254 |
| Total 1 M | 7903 | 72158 |
| Total Since Jan | (75692) | 442471 |
| Equity | (23999) | 113305 |
| Debt | (51693) | 329166 |
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